Влияние изменения климата на миграционные процессы сельских районов Центральной Азии

Нина Михольчич-Ивкович

Программа предоставления убежища и миграции, Белградский центр по правам человека, ул. Князя Милоша 4, 11000 Белград, Сербия

Email: ninamih87@gmail.com

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2024-R1.v3-1/74-95.eng

13 мая, 2024

Аннотация

Центральная Азия считается регионом, весьма уязвимым к климатическим изменениям, и, следовательно, регион подвержен миграции, обусловленной изменением климата. Сельское население во всем регионе особенно подвержено риску испытать на себе негативные последствия изменчивости климата и (им)мобильности из-за повышенной подверженности экологическим угрозам и бедствиям, которые также могут существенно повлиять на показатели продуктивности сельского хозяйства. В данной работе рассматривается влияние изменения климата на миграционные тенденции в сельских районах Центральной Азии с целью внести вклад в исследование климатической мобильности в регионе, сосредоточив внимание на наиболее уязвимых жителях региона. Статья исследует возможные сценарии влияния деградации окружающей среды и отступа ледников, создающих угрозу сельскому хозяйству, водным ресурсам и продовольственной безопасности, на миграционные тренды сельского населения пяти Центральноазиатских стран.

---

Скачать статью

Доступно на английском

Для цитирования: Miholjcic-Ivkovic, N. (2024). Impact of climate change on cigration trends in rural Central Asia. Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Research. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2024-R1.v3-1/74-95.eng

Список литературы

Aleksandrova, Mariya, John P.A. Lamers, Christopher Martius and Bernhard Tischbein. 2014. “Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review.” Environmental Science & Policy. 41(). 77–88. doi:10.1016/j. envsci.2014.03.001

Asian Development Bank. 2022. “Poverty Data: Kyrgyz Republic.” Asian Development Bank. https:// www.adb.org/countries/kyrgyz-republic/poverty. (Accessed: Feb. 5, 2023)

Asian Development Bank. 2012. “Addressing Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific.” Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank

Beck, Hylke E., Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Tim R. McVicar, Noemi Vergopolan, Alexis Berg and Eric F. Wood. 2018.“ Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution.” Scientific Data. 5(1). 180-214. doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.214

Bekchanov, Maksud, John P. A. Lamers. 2016. “Economic costs of reduced irrigation water availability in Uzbekistan (Central Asia).” Regional Environmental Change. 16(8). 2369–2387. doi:10.1007/ s10113-016-0961-z

Bell, Martin, Elin Charles-Edwards, Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski, John Stillwell and Yu Zhu. 2014. “Internal migration data around the world: Assessing contemporary practice.” Population, Space and Place. 21(1). 1-17. DOI: 10.1002/psp.1848

Bettini, Giovanni, Sarah Louise Nash and Giovanna Gioli. 2016. “One step forward, two steps back? The fading contours of (in)justice in competing discourses on climate migration.” The Geographical Journal. 183(4). 348-358. doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12192

Blondin, Suzy. 2018. “Environmental migrations in Central Asia: a multifaceted approach to the issue.” Central Asian Survey 1-18. DOI: 10.1080/02634937.2018.1519778

Blondin, Suzy. 2022. “Let’s hit the road! Environmental hazards, materialities, and mobility justice: insights from Tajikistan’s Pamirs.” Journal of ethnic and migration studies, 48(14). 3416–3432.

Blondin, Suzy. 2021. “Staying despite disaster risks: Place attachment, voluntary immobility and adaptation in Tajikistan’s Pamir Mountains.” Geoforum. 126. 290-301. doi.org/10.1016/j. geoforum.2021.08.009

Chapman, Alex, William Davies and Ciaran Downey. 2021. “Climate Risk Country Profiles: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan.” World Bank and Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/ default/files/publication/706596/climate-risk-country-profile-kyrgyz-republic.pdf; https://www. adb.org/publications/climate-risk-country-profile-tajikistan; https://www.adb.org/publications/ climate-risk-country-profile-kazakhstan. (Accessed: Feb. 7, 2023)

Christmann, Stefanie, Cristopher Martius, David Bedoshvili, Ithiyjor Bobojonov, C. Carli, K. Devkota, Z. Ibragimov, Z. Khalikulov, K. Kienzler, and H. Manthrithilake. 2009. “Food Security and Climate Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus.” ICARDA CAC Program. https://www.researchgate. net/profile/Alisher_Mirzabaev/publication/235792149_Food_Security_and_Climate_Change_in_ Central_Asia_and_the_Caucasus/links/0912f5138b91b3cd9a000000/Food-Security-and-Climate- Change-inCentral-Asia-and-the-Caucasus.pdf?origin=publication_list. (Accessed: Feb. 2, 2023)

Clement, V., Rigaud, K.K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Adamo, S., Schewe, J., Sadiq, N., Shabahat, E. 2021. “Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://climate-diplomacy.org/magazine/conflict/groundswell-part-ii-acting-internal-climate-migration (Accessed: Jan. 24, 2023)

Climate Adaptation Platform. 2021. “Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Plan for Climate Change in Uzbekistan.” Climateadaptationplatform.org. https://climateadaptationplatform.com/climate-adaptation-mitigation-plan-for-uzbekistans-future-water-demands/. (Accessed: Feb. 6, 2023)

Duan, Weili, Yaning Chen, Shan Zou and Daniel Nover. 2019. “Managing the water-climate- food nexus for sustainable development in Turkmenistan.” Journal of Cleaner Production. 220. 212-224. doi. org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.040

Delazeri, Linda Márcia Mendes, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha and Lais Rosa Oliveira. 2022. “Climate change and rural–urban migration in the Brazilian Northeast region.” GeoJournal. 87. 2159–2179. doi. org/10.1007/s10708-020-10349-3

Eureporter. 2021. “Uzbekistan takes systemic measures to mitigate effects of climate change.” Eureporter.org. https://www.eureporter.co/world/uzbekistan/2021/08/16/uzbekistan-takes-systemic-measures-to-mitigate-effects-of-climate-change/. (Accessed: Feb. 6, 2023)

Farbotko, Carol, Fanny Thornton, Monika Mayrhofer and Elfriede Hermann. 2022. “Climate mobilities, rights and justice: Complexities and particularities.” Frontiers in Climate. 4. doi.org/10.3389/ fclim.2022.1026486

Glantz, M. H. 2005. “Water, Climate and Development Issues in the Amu Darya Basin.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 10. 23–50.

Haag, Isabell, Philip D. Jones and Cyrus Samimi. 2019. “Central Asia’s Changing Climate: How Temperature and Precipitation Have Changed across Time, Space, and Altitude.” Climate, 7(10). doi.org/10.3390/cli7100123

Hermans, K. 2024. “Climate change and mobility in Central Asia. Handbook of Migration and Globalisation, Chapter 23: Climate change and mobility in Central Asia.” pp.353–367. Elgaronline. com. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800887657.00033

Hijioka Y, Lin E, Pereira JJ, Corlett RT, Cui X, Insarov G, Lasco R, Lindgren E, Surjan A. 2014. Regional aspects. Chapter 24— Asia. In Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Final draft, IPCC AR5 WGII, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. 1327-1370.

Hofman, Irma. 2021. “Migration, crop diversification, and adverse incorporation: understanding the repertoire of contention in rural Tajikistan.” Canadian Journal of Development Studies / Revue canadienne d’études du développement. 42(4). 499-518. doi: 10.1080/02255189.2020.1788519

Howard, Ken W. F. and Karina K. Howard. 2016. “The new “Silk Road Economic Belt” as a threat to the sustainable management of Central Asia’s transboundary water resources.” Environmental Earth Sciences. 75(11). 976–. doi:10.1007/s12665-016-5752-9

Hu, Qi and Zihang Han. 2022. “Northward Expansion of Desert Climate in Central Asia in Recent Decades.” Geophysical Research Letters. 49(11). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ doi/10.1029/2022GL098895 (Accessed: Jan. 27, 2023)

Hu, Zengyun, Chi Zhang, Qi Hu and Hanqin Tian. 2014. “Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets.” Journal of Climate. 27(3). 1143–1167. doi.org/10.1175/ JCLI-D-13-00064.1

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). 2021. “Regional Level – Climate fact sheet: Central Asia.” ICRC. https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/RCCC-ICRC-Country-profiles- Region_Centra_Asia.pdf. (Accessed: Jan. 31, 2023)

Jäger, Jill, Johannes Frühmann, Sigrid Grünberger and Andras Vag. 2009. “Environment and migration scenarios for Ferghana Valley.” EACH-FOR environmental change and forced migration scenarios no. 2.2.3

Jiang, Jie and Tianjun Zhou. (2023). “Agricultural drought over water-scarce Central Asia aggravated by internal climate variability.” Nature Geoscience. doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01111-0

Jung, Hyo Jeong and Michael Newson. 2022. “Sanctions On Russia Already Hitting Remittance- Dependent Countries in Central Asia.” ReliefWeb.org. https://reliefweb.int/report/kyrgyzstan/ sanctions-russia-already-hitting-remittance-dependent-countries-central-asia (Accessed: Jan. 28, 2023)

Kelly C, Chinara Biyalieva, Svetlana Dolgikh, Sergey Erokhin, Alexander Fedorenko, Aida Gareeva, Yann Garcin, Aliya Ibraimova, Shamil Iliasov, Iren Mastre, Andrey Podrezov, Yegor Volovik, Jyldyz Uzakbaeva and Andrey Sidorin. 2013. “Enabling Integrated Climate Risk Assessment for CCD planning in Central Asia: Kyrgyzstan Climate Risk Profile.” CAMP Alatoo and UNDP. https://cdkn. org/sites/default/files/files/Kyrgyzstan-Climate-Risk-Profile-Report.pdf. (Accessed: Feb. 8, 2023)

Khashimov, Sher, Raushan Zhandayeva, Kymbat Nuranova and Zhibek Aisarina. 2020. “Introducing the Central Asia Migration Tracker.” The Oxus Society. https://oxussociety.org/introducing-the-central-asia-migration-tracker/. (Accessed: Feb. 5, 2023)

Kull, Daniel, Jane Olga Ebinger, John Bryant Collier and William Young. 2022. “World Bank experts on Central Asia’s looming water crisis.” The Third Pole. https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/regional-cooperation/global-regional-action-crucial-avoid-central-asia-water-crisis-world-bank-experts/ (Accessed: Jan. 31, 2023)

Kyrgyz Republic. 2016. “Third National Communication to the UNFCCC.” https://unfccc.int/sites/ default/files/resource/NC3_Kyrgyzstan_English_24Jan2017_0.pdf. (Accessed: Feb. 5, 2023)

Lioubimtseva, Elena and Geoffrey M. Henebry. 2009. “Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations.” Journal of Arid Environments. 73(11). 0–977. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.04.022

Lioubimtseva, Elena, Jahan Kariyeva and Geoffrey M. Henebry. 2014. “Climate Change in Turkmenistan.” The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry. 28. 39–58. DOI 10.1007/698_2012_175

Liu, Yang, Xiu Geng, Zhixin Hao, and Jingyun Zheng. 2020. “Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming and their Impacts on Agricultural Productions” Atmosphere 11, no. 10: 1076. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/10/1076. (Accessed: Jan. 26, 2023)

Lukyanets, Artem, Sergey V. Ryazantsev, Evgeniya Moiseeva and Roman Manshin. 2020. “The Economic and Social Consequences of Environmental Migration in the Central Asian Countries.” Central Asia and the Caucasus, 21(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.37178/ca-c.20.2.13

Mannig, Birgit, Markus Müllera, Eva Starkeb, Christian Merkenschlagera, Weiy Mao, Xiefei Zhid, Ralf Podzune, Daniela Jacobe and Heiko Paetha. 2013. “Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia.” Global and Planetary Change. 110(A). 26–39. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.008

Migration Data Portal. 2023. “Remittances.” Migrationdataportal.org. https://www. migrationdataportal.org/themes/remittances. (Accessed: Feb. 5, 2023)

Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, United Nations Development Programme in Kazakhstan and Global Environment Facility. 2017. “Seventh National Communication and third Biennial report of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.” https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/20963851_Kazakhstan-NC7-BR3-1- ENG_Saulet_Report_12-2017_ENG.pdf. (Accessed: Feb. 7, 2023)

Murzakulova, Asel. 2020. “Rural Migration in Kyrgyzstan: Drivers, Impact and Governance.” University of Central Asia’s Mountain Societies Research Institute (UCA MSRI). https://www.semanticscholar. org/paper/Rural-Migration-in-Kyrgyzstan%3A-Drivers%2C-Impact-and-Murzakulova/35a05ddd29e1 977bfdc77cdef7fad87a0d8c7b9d. (Accessed: Feb. 9, 2023)

Peng, Li, Dingde Xu and Xuxi Wang. 2018. “Vulnerability of rural household livelihood to climate variability and adaptive strategies in landslide-threatened western mountainous regions of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China.” Climate and Development. 1-16. doi:10.1080/17565529.20 18.1445613

Quillerou, Emmanuelle, Richard J. Thomas, Oleg Guchgeldiyev, Stefanie Ettling, Hannes Etter, and Naomi Stewart. 2016. “Broadening options for improved economic sustainability in Central Asia.” Report for Economics of Land Degradation (ELD) Initiative. Amman, Jordan. https://www.eld-initiative.org/fileadmin/ELD_Filter_Tool/Case_Study_Central_Asia/ELD_CA_regional_report.pdf. (Accessed: Jan. 30, 2023)

Ratha, Dilip, and Eung Ju Kim. 2022. “Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Remittance flows to Ukraine and Central Asia.” World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/peoplemove/russia-ukraine-conflict-implications-remittance-flows-ukraine-and-central-asia (Accessed: Jan. 28, 2022)

Reyer, Christopher P.O, Ilona M. Otto, Sophie Adams, Torsten Albrecht, Florent Baarsch, Matti Cartsburg, Dim Coumou, Alexander Eden, Eva Ludi, Rachel Marcus, Matthias Mengel, Beatrice Mosello, Alexander Robinson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Olivia Serdeczny and Judith Stagl. 2015. “Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development.” Regional Environmental Change. DOI 10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z

Rounce, David R, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Etienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos and Robert W McNabb. 2023. “Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters.” Science. 379(6627). 78-83. doi: 10.1126/science.abo1324

The World Bank, World Development Indicators (2021). Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) in 2019; Personal remittances, received (current US$) in 2021; Share of rural population in the Central Asia region in 2021, by country. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/ source/world-development-indicators

Sasahara, Akira and Giovanni Peri. 2022. “The effects of global warming on rural–urban migrations.”CEPR.org. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/effects-global-warming-rural-urban-migrations#:~:text=Our%20central%20estimates%20indicate%20that,in%20upper%2Dmiddle%20 income%20countries. (Accesses: Jan. 29, 2023)

Schewel, Kerilyn. (2019). “Understanding Immobility: Moving Beyond the Mobility Bias in Migration Studies.” International Migration Review. 328-355. doi: 10.1177/0197918319831952

Shaw, R., Y. Luo, T.S. Cheong, S. Abdul Halim, S. Chaturvedi, M. Hashizume, G.E. Insarov, Y. Ishikawa, M. Jafari, A. Kitoh, J. Pulhin, C. Singh, K. Vasant, and Z. Zhang, 2022: Asia. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1457- 1579, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.012

Small, Ian, J. van der Meer, and R. E. G. Yupshur. 2001. “Acting on an Environmental Health Disaster: The Case of the Aral Sea.” Environmental Health Perspectives 109 (6). 547–9.

Sulaimanova, Saltanat. 2004. “Migration trends in Central Asia and the case of trafficking of women.” In: Burghart D, Sabonis-Helf T (eds) In the tracks of tamerlane. Central Asia’s path to the 21st century. INSS CTNSP, Washington D.C.

Suleimenov, Y. 2021. “The Race Against Time for Smarter Development”, in Schneegans, S., Straza, T., and Lewis, J. (eds) UNESCO Science Report. Paris: UNESCO Publishing, pp. 365–394. https:// unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000377469/PDF/377469eng.pdf.multi

Tripathy Furlong, Basundhara, Helen Adams, Ingrid Boas, Jeroen Warner and Han Van Dijk. 2022. “Gendered (im)mobility: emotional decisions of staying in the context of climate risks in Bangladesh.” Regional Environmental Change. 22. 123. doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01974-4

Vakulchuk, Roman, Anne Sophie Daloz, Indra Overland, Haakon Fossum Sagbakken and Karina Standal. 2022. “A void in Central Asia research: climate change.” Central Asian Survey, DOI: 10.1080/02634937.2022.2059447

World Bank. 2022. “The World Bank in Tajikistan: Overview.” World Bank Group.org. https://www. worldbank.org/en/country/tajikistan/overview#:~:text=Country%20Context&text=Over%20 the%20past%20decade%2C%20Tajikistan,rate%20of%207%25%20per%20year. (Accessed: Feb. 5, 2023).

Yu, Yang, Yuanyue Pi, Xiang Yu, Zhijie Ta, Lingxiao Sun, Markus Disse, Fanjiang Zeng, Yaoming Li, Xi Chen and Ruide Yu. 2019. “Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years.” Journal of Arid Land. 11. 1–14. doi. org/10.1007/s40333-018-0073-3

Xenarios, S., Gafurov, A., Schmidt-Vogt, D., Sehring, J., Manandhar, S., Hergarten, C., Shigaeva, J. & Foggin, M. 2019. “Climate change and adaptation of mountain societies in Central Asia: uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and data constraints.” Regional Environmental Change, 19(5), pp. 1339-1352, DOI:10.1007/s10113-018-1384-9

Zaveri, Esha, Jason Russ, Amjad Khan, Richard Damania, Edoardo Borgomeo, and Anders Jägerskog. 2021. “Ebb and Flow: Volume 1. Water, Migration, and Development.” World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/36089/9781464817458. pdf?sequence=8&isAllowed=y. (Accessed: Feb. 8, 2023)

Zhou, Yu, Li Zhang, ,Rasmus Fensholt, Kun Wang, Irina Vitkovskaya and Feng Tian. 2015. “Climate Contributions to Vegetation Variations in Central Asian Drylands: Pre- and Post-USSR Collapse.” Remote Sens. 7(3). 2449-2470. doi.org/10.3390/rs70302449

Zickgraf, Caroline. 2019. “Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)Mobility and Climate Change.” Social Science. 8(8). 228. doi.org/10.3390/socsci8080228