Измерение потенциала адаптации к изменению климата в Центральной Азии

Рахат Сабырбеков ^a,b*, Индра Оверленд ^c

^a Академия ОБСЕ, Ботанический переулок, 1А, Бишкек, 720044, Кыргызстан
^b Центр Дэвиса по изучению России и Евразии, Гарвардский университет, 1730 Cambridge Street, MA 02138, Кембридж
^c Норвежский институт международных отношений, PB 7024 St. Olavs Plass, OSLO, 0130, Норвегия

*Email: rsabyrbekov@fas.harvard.edu

Индра Оверленд : ino@nupi.no

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-1/83-104.eng

29 июня, 2023

Аннотация

Изменение климата представляет собой серьезную угрозу для региона Центральной Азии, усугубляя уже существующие уязвимые места и вызывая необходимость активизации усилий по адаптации. Экономические и экологические потери от этих изменяющихся климатических условий значительны, что вынуждает правительства стран укреплять свой адаптационный потенциал. В этом исследовании мы используем подход к адаптации Рамочной конвенции Организации Объединенных Наций об изменении климата (РКИК ООН) и высококачественные данные для количественной оценки способности стран Центральной Азии адаптироваться к последствиям изменения климата. Наша основная цель – сравнить прогресс в адаптации в странах Центральной Азии с прогрессом в странах за пределами региона. Результаты нашего анализа показывают, что, несмотря на объявленные стратегии адаптации, Центральная Азия отстает в этой важной области. Низким показателям адаптации в регионе способствуют несколько факторов, в том числе сильная зависимость от ископаемого топлива, ресурсоемкая экономика и ограниченный инновационный потенциал. Этот недостаток адаптивной готовности делает страны Центральной Азии плохо подготовленными к надвигающимся последствиям изменения климата. Лица принимающим решения необходимо принять срочные действия, чтобы устранить это пробел, сформулировать эффективные стратегии адаптации и защитить будущую устойчивость региона.

---

Скачать статью

Доступно на английском

For citation: Sabyrbekov, R., Overland, I., (2023). Measuring the Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in Central Asia. Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Research.  https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-1/83-104.eng

Литература

Aaheim, A., & Aasen, M. (2008). What do we know about the economics of adaptation? (Vol. 150). Centre for European Policy Studies.

Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., & Tompkins, E. L. (2005). Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15(2), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. gloenvcha.2004.12.005

Adger, W. N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D., & Hulme, M. (2003). Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies, 3(3), 179–195. https://doi. org/10.1191/1464993403ps060oa

Alam, M., & Huq, S. (2019). Measuring Status of Climate Change Adaptation: An Assessment Framework. In M. Alam, J. Lee, & P. Sawhney (Eds.), Status of Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific (pp. 13–26). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99347-8_2

Barnes, M. L., Wang, P., Cinner, J. E., Graham, N. A. J., Guerrero, A. M., Jasny, L., Lau, J., Sutcliffe, S. R., & Zamborain-Mason, J. (2020). Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 10(9), 823–828. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020- 0871-4

Blondin, S. (2023). The Dual Relationship Between Human Mobility and Climate Change in Central Asia: Tackling the Vulnerability of Mobility Infrastructure and Transport-Related Environmental Issues. In R. Sabyrbekov, I. Overland, & R. Vakulchuk (Eds.), Climate Change in Central Asia (pp. 111–122). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_9

Buylova, A., Fridahl, M., Nasiritousi, N., Overland, I., & Reischl, G. (2022). Climate action in the making: Business and civil society views on the world’s first carbon border levy. Climate Action, 1(1), 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44168-022-00015-4

Cherchye, L., Moesen, W., Rogge, N., Van Puyenbroeck, T., Saisana, M., Saltelli, A., Liska, R., & Tarantola, S. (2008). Creating composite indicators with DEA and robustness analysis: The case of the Technology Achievement Index. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59(2), 239–251. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602445

CRED. (2023). The International Disaster Database, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. UCLouvain. www.emdat.be/

Daloz, A. S. (2023). Climate Change: A Growing Threat for Central Asia. In R. Sabyrbekov, I. Overland, & R. Vakulchuk (Eds.), Climate Change in Central Asia (pp. 15–21). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_2

Dun, O., Klocker, N., Farbotko, C., & McMichael, C. (2023). Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Learning from an international labour mobility programme in Australia and the Pacific Islands region. Environmental Science & Policy, 139, 250–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2022.10.017

Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Araos, M., Austin, S. E., & Lesnikowski, A. (2015). Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement. Nature Climate Change, 5(11), 967–969. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2744

GCF. (2023). Open Data Library.Projects. Green Climate Fund. Dataset. https://data.greenclimate. fund/public/data/projects

Gerlitz, L., Vorogushyn, S., & Gafurov, A. (2020). Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context. Water Security, 10, 100061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100061

Green Climate Fund. (2023). Date of address 17.05.2023. https://www.greenclimate.fund/

Gupta, J., Termeer, C., Klostermann, J., Meijerink, S., van den Brink, M., Jong, P., Nooteboom, S., & Bergsma, E. (2010). The Adaptive Capacity Wheel: A method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society. Environmental Science & Policy, 13(6), 459–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.05.006

IMF. (2023a). Financial Development Index Database. https://data.imf.org/?sk=f8032e80-b36c-43b1- ac26-493c5b1cd33b&sId=1485894037365

IMF. (2023b). Total fossil fuel subsidies as a percentage of GDP. Dataset. https://www.imf.org/en/ Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies#A%20Global%20Picture%20of%20Energy%20Subsidies

IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C: IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi. org/10.1017/9781009157940

Mirzabaev, A. (2012). Climate Volatility and Change in Central Asia: Economic Impacts and Adaptation. Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität zu Bonn.

Mirzabaev, A. (2023). Climate Change Science and Policy in Central Asia: Current Situation and Future Perspectives. In R. Sabyrbekov, I. Overland, & R. Vakulchuk (Eds.), Climate Change in Central Asia (pp. 23–32). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_3

Nardo, M., Saisana, M., Saltelli, S., Tarantola, A., Hoffman, A. and Giovannini, E. (2008). Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide. OECD Statistics Working Papers, 2005/*3, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264043466-en

Overland, I., & Sabyrbekov, R. (2022). Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism? Energy Policy, 169, 113175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. enpol.2022.113175

Poberezhskaya, M., & Danilova, N. (2022). Reconciling climate change leadership with resource nationalism and regional vulnerabilities: A case-study of Kazakhstan. Environmental Politics, 31(3), 429–452. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2021.1920768

Reyer, C. P. O., Otto, I. M., Adams, S., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Eden, A., Ludi, E., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Mosello, B., Robinson, A., Schleussner, C.-F., Serdeczny, O., & Stagl, J. (2017). Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1639–1650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0893-z

Sabyrbekov, R. (2019). Income diversification strategies among pastoralists in Central Asia: Findings from Kyrgyzstan. Pastoralism, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13570-019-0152-x

Sabyrbekov, R., Overland, I., & Vakulchuk, R. (2023). Central Asian Climate Policy Pledges Under the Paris Agreement: Can They Be Fulfilled? In R. Sabyrbekov, I. Overland, & R. Vakulchuk (Eds.), Climate Change in Central Asia (pp. 35–49). Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_4

Saisana, M., Tarantola, S., Schulze, N., Cherchye, L., Moesen, W., & Puyenbroeck, T. V. (2005). State-of-the-art report on composite indicators for the knowledge-based economy. Knowledge Economy Indicators: Development of Innovative and Reli- Able Indicator Systems – KEI, 1–48.

Saltelli, A. (2007). Composite Indicators Between Analysis and Advocacy. Social Indicators Research 81(1):65-77

Shi, L., & Moser, S. (2021). Transformative climate adaptation in the United States: Trends and prospects. Science, 372(6549), eabc8054. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc8054

Thomas, K., Hardy, R. D., Lazrus, H., Mendez, M., Orlove, B., Rivera‐Collazo, I., Roberts, J. T., Rockman, M., Warner, B. P., & Winthrop, R. (2019). Explaining differential vulnerability to climate change: A social science review. WIREs Climate Change, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.565

UNEP. (2023). SGD 12. Indicator 12.2.2: Domestic material consumption, domestic material consumption per capita, and domestic material consumption per GDP. Dataset. https://unstats. un.org/sdgs/dataportal

UN-Habitat. (2023). SDG Goal 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. Dataset. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/envstats/qindicators (refer to “Inland Water Resources”)

United Nations. (2023). Energy intensity level of primary energy (megajoules per constant 2017 purchasing power parity GDP). United Nations Statistics Division, International Energy Agency (IEA). www.iea.org/unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats

UNSD. (2023a). Proportion of important sites for terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity that are covered by protected areas. Dataset. SDG 15. https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/dataportal/database

UNSD. (2023b). Share of modern renewables in total final energy consumption (%). Dataset. http:// data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=EDATA

Vakulchuk, R., Daloz, A. S., Overland, I., Sagbakken, H. F., & Standal, K. (2022). A void in Central Asia research: Climate change. Central Asian Survey.

Vakulchuk, R., Isataeva, A., Kolodzinskaia, G., Overland, I., & Sabyrbekov, R. (2022). Fossil Fuels in Central Asia: Trends and Energy Transition Risks Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for. Central Asia Regional Data Review, 28, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11461.37607

Vakulchuk, R., & Overland, I. (2021). Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition. One Earth, 4(12), 1678–1692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. oneear.2021.11.012

WIPO. (2021). Total patent applications (direct and PCT national phase entries). WIPO Statistics Database.

World Bank. (2022). World Development Indicators. Total Population [dataset]. https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL

World Bank. (2023a). World Development Indicators Database. CO2 emissions per capita. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.