Flood and flash flood risk assessment for sustainable development in the Zhabay river basin (Kazakhstan)

Kalashnikova O. Yu., ^a* , Nurbacina A.A. ^b , Niyazov J.B. ^c

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^a Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, 73/2 Timur Frunze St., Bishkek, 720027, Kyrgyz Republic
^b Institute of Geography and Water Safety, Committee of Science, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of
the Republic of Kazakhstan, 99 Pushkina str., Almaty, 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan
^c Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of
Tajikistan, 14a Ayni Str., Dushanbe, 734042, Republic of Tajikistan

*Email: o.kalashnikova@caiag.kg

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-1/22-45.rus

June 2, 2023

Abstract

The investigation of climate and hydrological changes, encompassing the assessment of flood hazard, as well as flood prevention and forecasting capacities, took place in the Zhabay Riv-er Basin. Since 2000, Kazakhstan has been witnessing stable air temperature increase. In the target watershed, strong floods (2014) and destructive waves (2017) –
threatening the lives of the residents of the town of Atbasar located at the river mouth – were registered dur-ing the same period. The HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling software applied during the re-search demonstrated the extreme (crisis) risk for the most eastern and high risk for the south-ern town sections. The climate change forecast for 2030 and 2040 based on long-term means, compiled using regression equations, showed further air temperature growth by 0.8-2.2°C and precipitation growth by 7-22% in the Zhabay Basin. It means that in the future, warm period duration, snow melting intensity, and precipitation amount will likewise in-crease. The article presents the outcomes of analyzing the
short-term hydrological forecasts compiled using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). The analysis results show 81-86% accuracy of flood forecasts based on independent validation years (2019 and 2020), in-dicating that the model can be used for operational purposes, i.e. generating short-term wa-ter flow and volume forecasts. The parameter optimization presented also allows applying the model for mid-, longand super long-term discharge forecasts for the Zhabay River. The study results may guide decision-makers in terms of long-term water resource
planning in the context of climate change, as well as water managers, utility operators, and emergency ser-vices in designing public prevention measures, constructing flood control and other engineering installations.

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For citation: Kalashnikova, O., Nurbacina, A., Niyazov, J., (2023) Flood and flash flood risk assessment for sustainable development in the Zhabay river basin (Kazakhstan). Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Research. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-1/22-45.rus

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