Flood and flash flood risk assessment for sustainable development in the Zhabay river basin (Kazakhstan)

Kalashnikova O. Yu., a* , Nurbacina A.A. b , Niyazov J.B. c

a Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, 73/2 Timur Frunze St., Bishkek, 720027, Kyrgyz Republic
b Institute of Geography and Water Safety, Committee of Science, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of
the Republic of Kazakhstan, 99 Pushkina str., Almaty, 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan
c Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of
Tajikistan, 14a Ayni Str., Dushanbe, 734042, Republic of Tajikistan

*Email: o.kalashnikova@caiag.kg


June 2, 2023


The investigation of climate and hydrological changes, encompassing the assessment of flood hazard, as well as flood prevention and forecasting capacities, took place in the Zhabay Riv-er Basin. Since 2000, Kazakhstan has been witnessing stable air temperature increase. In the target watershed, strong floods (2014) and destructive waves (2017) –
threatening the lives of the residents of the town of Atbasar located at the river mouth – were registered dur-ing the same period. The HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling software applied during the re-search demonstrated the extreme (crisis) risk for the most eastern and high risk for the south-ern town sections. The climate change forecast for 2030 and 2040 based on long-term means, compiled using regression equations, showed further air temperature growth by 0.8-2.2°C and precipitation growth by 7-22% in the Zhabay Basin. It means that in the future, warm period duration, snow melting intensity, and precipitation amount will likewise in-crease. The article presents the outcomes of analyzing the
short-term hydrological forecasts compiled using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). The analysis results show 81-86% accuracy of flood forecasts based on independent validation years (2019 and 2020), in-dicating that the model can be used for operational purposes, i.e. generating short-term wa-ter flow and volume forecasts. The parameter optimization presented also allows applying the model for mid-, longand super long-term discharge forecasts for the Zhabay River. The study results may guide decision-makers in terms of long-term water resource
planning in the context of climate change, as well as water managers, utility operators, and emergency ser-vices in designing public prevention measures, constructing flood control and other engineering installations.

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For citation: Kalashnikova, O., Nurbacina, A., Niyazov, J., (2023) Flood and flash flood risk assessment for sustainable development in the Zhabay river basin (Kazakhstan). Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Researchhttps://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-1/22-45.rus


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Central Asia, climate change, HEC-RAS, hydraulic modeling, hydrological modeling, Kazakhstan, short-term forecasting, SWIM, water resources, Zhabay River

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