Метан из угольных шахт в Казахстане: экономический и экологический анализ проекта

Сергей Васильев*, Галым Искаков

Общественный фонд «Экологический Фонд Развития Алматы», Карасу м/р-н, ул. Озерная, 22, г. Алматы, 050048, Казахстан

Email: svassilyev@yahoo.com

Галым Искаков: iskak.galym@gmail.com

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2024-R1.v3-1/96-125.eng

31 июля, 2024

Аннотация

Цель данного исследования – оценить экономическую и финансовую жизнеспособность проекта по утилизации метана из угольных шахт (МУШ) в Центральном Казахстане и продемонстрировать методологию, пригодную для аналогичных инициатив. Анализ основывается на проекте, предложенном Агентством по охране окружающей среды США (US EPA) в 2013 году, целью которого было улавливание метановых выбросов с шести угольных шахт для производства электроэнергии, но который так и не был реализован. Актуальность проекта обусловлена обязательствами Казахстана по сокращению выбросов метана к 2030 году, недавними успехами в политике страны по вопросам изменения климата, инцидентами со смертельным исходом среди шахтеров в 2023 году и изменениями в составе собственников компании Qarmet. Основываясь на технических спецификациях исследования EPA 2013 года, в данной работе используется стандартный финансово-экономический анализ выгод и затрат. Финансовый анализ применяет традиционный подход дисконтирования свободного денежного потока, в то время как экономическая модель учитывает дополнительные факторы, такие как стоимость среднестатистической жизни (ССЖ), скрытые цены и выгоды, связанные с сокращением воздействия озона на здоровье, ущерба для сельского хозяйства, рисков взрывов на шахтах и выбросов CO2. Экономическая модель демонстрирует положительную чистую приведенную стоимость в размере 243 миллиона долларов США и внутреннюю норму доходности в 42%. Финансовый анализ также указывает на потенциальную рентабельность при справедливом рыночном ценообразовании на электроэнергию и углеродные квоты. Для оценки устойчивости проекта при различных экономических и финансовых допущениях был проведен анализ чувствительности. Исследование опирается на результаты предыдущих исследований, связанных с МУШ в Казахстане, и предлагает ценные рекомендации для анализа аналогичных проектов. Кроме того, оно подчеркивает необходимость внесения изменений в существующее законодательство для стимулирования таких проектов, что будет способствовать экологической устойчивости и социальному развитию за счет снижения выбросов метана, что, в свою очередь, соответствует климатическим целям Казахстана.

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Для цитирования: Vassilyev, S., Iskakov, G. (2024). Coal mine methane in Kazakhstan: economic and environmental case study. Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Research. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2024-R1.v3-1/96-125.eng

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