Пространственно — временные закономерности реакции различных древесных видов на климатические факторы на юге Кыргызстана

Куликов М. ^a*, Шибков Е. ^a, Исаев Э. ^a, Азаров А. ^а,б, Сайдл Р. ^a

^a Университет Центральной Азии, ул. Токтогула 125/1, Бишкек, 720001, Кыргызская Республика
^б Чешский университет наук о жизни Прага, Камыцка 129, Прага, 165 00, Чешская Республика

*Email: maksim.s.kulikov@gmail.com

Шибков Е.: evgenii.shibkov@ucentralasia.org; Исаев Э.: erkiwa@gmail.com; Азаров A.: azamat.azarov@ucentralasia.org; Сайдл Р.: roy.sidle@ucentralasia.org

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-2/98-128.rus

10 октября, 2023

Аннотация

Понимание фенологии лесов имеет важное значение для мониторинга глобального баланса углерода и управления растительными ресурсами в условиях меняющегося климата. На юге Кыргызстана произрастают леса, где доминирующими видами являются грецкий орех и дикая яблоня. Эти леса содержат уникальное генетическое разнообразие и открывают потенциал для выведения климатически устойчивых сортов сельскохозяйственных культур. Они также являются источником дохода для местного населения, предоставляя природные ресурсы для выпаса скота, сбора дров и фруктов. Однако такая практика представляет угрозу естественному возобновлению лесов. Изменение климата усугубляет эти проблемы, изменяя экологические условия в местах произрастания этих видов. Несмотря на это, лишь немногие исследования посвящены изучению фенологии лесов и её связи с климатом в Кыргызстане. Чтобы восполнить этот пробел, мы собрали экологические данные с лесных участков в трёх охраняемых природных территориях и одном лесничестве. Сюда вошли координаты деревьев, их виды и данные о ландшафте. Временные ряды индексов растительности (EVI), температуры поверхности земли и осадков были получены на основе данных дистанционного зондирования. Регрессионный анализ показал, что температурные тренды имели ограниченную предсказательную силу для растительности, в то время как сезонные колебания температуры оказывали положительное влияние на растительность до тех пор, пока температура не превышала определённого предела, что имело отрицательный эффект. Среднегодовые тренды осадков и их сезонные колебания оказали наиболее существенное воздействие на растительность с запаздывающим эффектом.
Были разработаны регрессионные модели для Juglans regia L. (R² = 0,8) и Malus spp. (R² = 0,75) для прогнозирования индекса растительности на основе данных о температуре и осадках с высокой точностью. На небольшой территории была отмечена пространственная неоднородность реакции древесных видов на климатические факторы. В исследовании подчеркивается влияние ландшафтного и климатического разнообразия на динамику лесов и важность сезонности климатических факторов по сравнению со среднегодовыми трендами.

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Для цитирования: Kulikov, M., Shibkov, E., Isaev, E., Azarov, A., Sidle, R. (2023). Spatio-temporal patterns of different tree species response to climatic factors in south Kyrgyzstan. Central Asian Journal of Sustainability and Climate Research.  https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJSCR/2023-R1.v2-2/98-128.rus

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